EVs and rural resentment
Plus, the explanation of electrification that we all need
City folk are buying electric vehicles (EVs) at pretty high rates while rural people are mocking them at higher rates, as I noted in a recent post here on Old Truck Good Coffee, “Talking about the hard edges.”
I believe that rural people think that the move to EVs is going to make their life harder. They will once again be unsupported, forgotten, and forced into a costly inconvenience. Don’t scoff at that perception; they have some precedent for that fear.
Realistic, serious EV think tank-types don’t think we are in for an internal combustion-free future in our lifetimes. The US Department of Energy has put out extensive studies and foresee that 25 years from now, half the miles traveled in America will still be gas powered. That is the most optimistic projection. That means there will still be gas stations, and there will still be new internal combustion vehicles coming off the line. 33% to the 75% of vehicles sold will take gas to run.1
I would like to hear barstool EV advocates recognizing how important it is to speak to those who don’t want the product. It is their habit to talk about total electrification, freedom from petroleum. For those prepared and leaning into that future, it is a pleasant fantasy. For those who don’t see any advantage to them, it is a reason to buy into the oil companies propaganda about EVs and pro-EV policies which just make up shit about taking gas cars away.
If you are advocating for EVs, I think you need to be explicit that folks will not be compelled to change what they do. A gas car may be best for them, and allowing them to do what is best for them is best for the environment; it keeps them from being an opponent.
Since Henry Ford made the multiple body styles of the Model A, America has desired options in cars. Manufacturers deliver in spades. Number of seats, ground clearance, fuel efficiency, look, color, acceleration, spoilers, crab walking; we can shop endlessly for the car that suits us.
Power source has become one of those options. You can buy a pure gas vehicle, a hybrid, a plug in electric hybrid, or an electric vehicle. There are advantages to each.
Electrification, explained
The massive advantage to all of us from EVs is that they aid in the electrification of our energy system. Wonky people throw out the word electrification and often forget that the people they are talking to have better things to do than understand their vocabulary.
Electrification is like moving from the barter system to a standard currency.
By building as much of our conveniences and tools on the single power source — electricity — as opposed to a variety of petroleum-burning sources, we can innovate on how we create power and then use that power for all our applications. With one source for the work of our homes and industry, we all benefit from the next great idea for energy creation, storage, or efficiency.
When someone makes a more efficient electricity generation, we all get the benefit. You develop a cleaner source of power, everyone can use it to heat their house, cook their food, and drive their car.
Sorry to sound like a lecture. I hope I explained what the wonks left out.
I am bought in to electrification over the long term. It takes a change in human behavior, however. We are accustomed to putting gas into things to make them go. We have been doing that for, depending on where you live, three to four generations. It will take a generation or two to sensibly part from it.
Ah, the old collective action problem
It is hard to explain electrification as having personal benefit. It is the kind of collective action problem.2 That is not likely to change an individual human's behavior. They need to look for the comfort, safety, and benefit to themselves and those close to them. They need to do things that work for them. They are still buying gas cars (or mongrel hybrids), often without much knowledge of the options.
Those with an understandable hatred of EVs
Organizations that are truly opposed to EVs are those that sell gasoline. We are in a situation where the petroleum companies are paying the same public relations companies who extended the profits for cigarette peddlers as long as possible by sowing confusion.3
Among other things, they are elevating concerns about the ecological damage of the mining of the chemicals needed to make the current battery technology. These are true concerns, but I am most certainly tempted to bring up the decades of — and ongoing — environmental devastation of oil extraction around the world. I probably should not, however. It won't change a single mind.
Who do you curse for an EV-on-fire meme?
Through sharable articles in local papers and memes, opponents are proffering that EVs catch fire all the time, though they catch fire at a much lower rate than gas cars. We are just used to gas vehicles catching fire and don't write news stories about them.4
Again, we are in a position where the person who shares the meme on social media gets criticized for having a false or dumb belief. By attacking them for it, the EV-believer extends the divide between us.
I don’t know how to fix this. I usually respond on social media with a link to a debunking article and suggest that people take down their misinformation. In turn, they reply with some other objection to electric vehicles, wind power, or solar power.
It tells me their objection is not any of these things in particular. What if their objection is that nobody asked them and they fear that the outcome will harm them? How would you respond then?
To make progress with EVs, to get more rural people behind them, we need to say that if you need a gas car, if a gas car is the best solution for your family, your home or your work, you can have a gas car. There will be a gas station where it has always been.
That is likely what the market will offer. New cars coming of the lot 25 years from now should have a 20 year life. There should be people willing to sell gas for those vehicles for a generation, if not more.
Being surprised by what your fellow Americans need
The question of EVs shows how we fail to see America as broadly as it is. When we say "car,” each person thinks of the car as a solution to their needs. They see their car.
The requirements in urban areas are different than the requirements in small towns and rural areas. We need vehicles that support all of these uses.
And rural people know that they won’t get the infrastructure they need. Resources for new cool stuff like chargers and repair facilities starts in dense areas, like it did with electricity and like we continue to have sub par internet connectivity in rural areas.5 Eggs may be cheaper in the country, but infrastructure sucks more.
All problems at one time
The difference between an activist and a politician is accountability. An activist for climate change can say that it is “the most important problem of our lifetime” without being responsible for hurting poor communities and fertilizing social unrest. You can imagine a road straight up the hill with no switchbacks. A politician answers for their policy.6
They use the switchbacks.
Climate change is urgent and terrible. I don't know the actualities of the equations we need to accomplish. I don't know what adoption rate is the correct one. I do believe that speaking of a zero petroleum America is completely unviable. People would suffer greatly.
I hope we electrify a lot fast, but I think that trail is switchbacks, not charging straight up the hill.
I hope we don't saddle the poorest and least empowered with the greatest loss, as we tend to do. That turns out worse for everyone, including the movement to change. It has recently.
Turns out corporations can profit from disruption by screwing poor people
For a few years, environmental strategy to battle oil companies has included increasing the cost of oil supply. Along with policy, that meant lawsuits, direct action, and legislation. They had some basis for this from academia.7 They often are powerful ways to point out the damage that building pipelines and drilling does to people, communities, animals, and plants. It slowed production and affected the oil markets. With less available, oil costs more.8
It made sense to me at first. Oil's costs are subsidized by land giveaways and military actions as well as outright tax shelters. The thought was, “If we show the actual cost of gas to people, they will enthusiastically embrace alternatives.”
It didn’t work. It just pissed them off. People saw their way of life getting expensive. Rich stock holders get even higher profits9 and blame it on environmentalists.10
Sensibly, the folks paying the tab for those lawsuits and senseless profits feel resentment and vote for folks who lead chants like "drill, baby, drill."
The constituency for further progress dwindles. And when an EV is introduced, the poor are primed to resent rather than embrace it.
(not all footnotes will be this boring) Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States. 2018. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-71500. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1459351 ↩
A classic challenge noted from the 1600s to the present: Collective Action is hard! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_action_problem
See how Project Whitecoat moved from tobacco’s harms to climate change. https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-53640382
I don’t have to tell you this, right? It is still a huge problem that affect education and economic vibrance in rural America. https://www.prb.org/articles/digital-divide-in-high-speed-internet-access-leaves-rural-areas-behind/ ↩︎
Biden expanded oil production as well as green energy, The White House told Reuters that the high U.S. oil and gas output is helping, not hurting, U.S. efforts to decarbonize the economy because it ensures steady energy supply in the meantime.
“President Biden has led and delivered on the most ambitious climate agenda in history, restoring America’s climate leadership at home and abroad,” The White House said in a statement. “As we make the historic investments needed to transition to a clean energy economy, record domestic oil and gas production is helping to meet our immediate needs.” https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-BIDEN/OIL/lgpdngrgkpo/ ↩
https://environment.harvard.edu/news/high-oil-prices-can-help-environment Notably does not consider public opinion in a Democracy as a factor. Good to also note that Biden called on OPEC to increase production to keep prices down. ↩︎
Great article on the policy effects of a balanced approach, though it also abstracts away from the question of Democracy and public opinion. https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/partners-not-rivals-the-power-of-parallel-supply-side-and-demand-side-climate-policy/ ↩︎
Associated Press: High gas prices falsely attributed to Keystone XL cancellation (2022) The article includes “A meme posted on Facebook last week, which now has over 20,000 shares, reads: ‘Facts: If they didn’t shut down our pipelines we wouldn’t be paying $7 for gas.’” Which is not facts, but a lot of people buy it.https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-895299166310
I live in very rural America and have most of my life. I recently was fortunate enough to purchase a lightly used 2021 ev for under 14k after rebates. The car charges easily at home without added infrastructure. My only bad experience thus far was trying to use the public network of charging stations on a recent road trip. A majority of the city based ones didn't work or required multiple attempts to get hem to work And after the fact I've had stipend hours in phone calls getting incorrect charges addressed. The one without a hitch charge occurred in a tiny rural whear farming community with the charger being located at the local museum. Rural folks are indeed able to adapt. The thing is they are also practical.
We’ve passed the threshold for normalizing climate; we’ve already pumped too much energy into our atmosphere once contained in our Earth. Many species of flora and fauna are going to die. Most of our species will die. And that’s alright and we may recognize The American Dream caused this at some point. “Thanks for all the fish!”